Myth vs. ledger
The viral "do magnets" story is half wrong. The half that's right is bigger than magnets.
We read the proclamations, the counter-tariff schedule, the 8-Ks and the contract announcements so you don't have to. Here's what the tape actually says.
Myth· Ledger
Rare earths are not a Canada trade
Critical minerals are on neither side's list. MP Materials' story is real — a DoD $110/kg price floor, Apple's $500M, a 10X magnet plant in 2028 — but it's a China story. The rare-earth ETF fell 4% the week Canada escalated.
REMX −4.1% · Aug 21→28 · China truce expires Nov 10
Ledger
The real Canada trade is aluminum
The US imports about 60% of the aluminum it uses; Canada is about 56% of those imports (USGS 2026). US primary output was about 660kt in 2025 — no near-term domestic replacement. The collapsed deal would have cut Canada's rate to 25%; CRU estimates its failure is worth 30–40¢/lb to the one large US primary producer.
Midwest premium: record >$1.00/lb Jan '26 · CENX profiled free below
Ledger
Government money is the moat
By CFR's count Washington now holds stakes in about 30 companies: Intel 9.9%, MP about 15%, USA Rare Earth about 10%, Lithium Americas 5%, Trilogy Metals about 10% — signed Aug 28. July alone: $76.6B for submarines, $58.6B for PAC-3, $1.07B for HALEU fuel.
A tariff can be struck down in court. A signed contract is a different kind of risk.
Myth
“These tariffs are here to stay”
Section 338 has never been used, has no regulations and no case law; legal scholars argue it is likely unlawful. The IEEPA tariffs were struck down Feb 20, with $166B ordered refundable. Steel, aluminum and lumber sit on Section 232 and AD/CVD — decades of precedent. Weigh the law, not the headline.
Durability ladder inside the report
Ledger
The losers are concentrated
Canada spared pork, beef, ethanol, corn, soy and big tractors; it aimed at swing-state dairy, seafood, lumber and hay tools. On the US side, Jan 1 is the event: GM builds about 17% of Silverados in Oshawa; Stellantis builds the Pacifica only in Windsor.
14 LOSER · 21 MIXED · 42 WINNER
Myth
“Tariffs help US-made appliances”
Whirlpool now pays 50% on steel inputs and 25% going into Canada. Ongoing EPS −$0.21 last quarter, 1.8% ongoing EBIT margin, market cap −50% in a year. Losing on both sides of the border.
WHR $40.50 · 52-wk 35.45–96.57