S&P 500 +0.5% on the week; REMX −4.1%; XME +3.1%; ITB −1.1%. Steel and miners rose, rare earths fell, homebuilders lagged. The market has not yet paid for the "winners" thesis — and it hasn't punished the losers either. Sept 8 and any Section 338 lawsuit are the next tells.
A
CENX · Century Aluminum
Failed deal keeps Canada at the full 50% §232 rate; Midwest premium is the tell. Thesis intact; Inola FID still undated.
+1.5% Aug 28 · +5% Aug 24
A
LMT · Lockheed Martin
$58.6B PAC-3 multiyear is appropriated money; nothing in the Canada round touches it.
flat
B
MP · MP Materials
Sold off with the sector on macro risk-off. Canada is irrelevant to the thesis; Nov 10 China truce expiry is the catalyst. No change.
−4.9%
B
LEU · Centrus
Rates, not policy — Warsh hawkish. $1.07B DOE task order unchanged. Watching for $160 support (unverified level).
−9.75%
C
UAMY · US Antimony
Guidance halved; antimony −60%. Stockpile narrative not carrying the fundamentals. Moved to WATCH.
−6.0%
C
WHR · Whirlpool
Canada 25% on US appliances effective Sept 8 confirmed in the Finance Canada schedule. Remains AVOID.
−0.3%