How the map is built

Methodology

Tariff Arbitrage maps 77 US-listed companies across 8 sectors of the US–Canada tariff round. This page explains what the labels mean, where the facts come from, and what we do when we can't verify something. Read it together with the disclosures — this is general-circulation research, not personalized investment advice.

Verdicts: WINNER / MIXED / LOSER

Every company carries exactly one verdict describing the direction of its tariff exposure, judged from the mechanics of the tariff schedules and the company's own disclosures:

WINNER — the tariff round works in its favor: protected pricing, import substitution, government offtake or equity, or reshoring demand it can actually capture.
MIXED — meaningful benefits and meaningful costs at the same time (for example, protected output but tariffed inputs, or a Canada hit offset by a US build-out).
LOSER — the tariffs raise its costs, shrink its market, or invite retaliation faster than any offset.

A verdict is about tariff exposure only. It is not a buy or sell rating, and a WINNER can still be a bad stock at the wrong price.

Tiers: CORE / SATELLITE / WATCH / AVOID

Within a verdict, the tier says how central the name is to the research map:

CORE — the cleanest expression of a thesis: direct beneficiary, disclosed government money or contracts, liquid enough to matter.
SATELLITE — real exposure to the same thesis but with an extra layer of risk: earlier stage, thinner liquidity, more dilution, or a less direct mechanism.
WATCH — the exposure is real but not yet actionable, or the evidence is still thin; we track it and wait.
AVOID — the tariff round is a net negative we would not want to own into; most of the "Losers & Avoid" sector sits here.

The legal durability ladder

A tariff trade is only as good as the legal authority behind the tariff. Every profile's "durability" line grades the statute its thesis depends on:

Authority	Covers	Durability	Who depends on it
Section 232 (national security)	Steel 50%, aluminum 50%, copper semis 50%, autos 25%, lumber 10%, furniture 25%, pharma 100%, drones 100%	HIGH — decades of case law; courts deferential	Steel, aluminum, lumber, pharma, defense winners
Section 301 (unfair practices)	China legacy; new 10–12.5% on ~60 economies; Brazil 25%	MEDIUM-HIGH — statute tested; global 'forced labor' rationale novel	Reshoring / import-substitution theses
AD/CVD (softwood lumber)	Canadian softwood 35.16% (→ ~25% after AR7 final, Oct 2026)	HIGH — routine trade remedy	US sawmills
Section 338 (1930 Act, first-ever use)	Canada 50% on ~$20B (excludes goods already under §232)	LOW — no regulations, no case law; legal scholars (Volokh Conspiracy, Aug 23) argue it is likely unlawful; no suit yet located	Plywood, furniture, whiskey, beer, hockey — the Canada-specific trades
IEEPA	Nothing — struck down Feb 20, 2026; $166B ordered refundable, refunds paid in phases since Apr 20	DEAD	—

The practical rule: theses built on Section 232 and routine AD/CVD survive courtrooms and most deals; theses built on Section 338 can vanish with one ruling; anything that depended on IEEPA is already dead.

Sourcing standards

Every company profile carries a source URL. We source to primary documents: company filings (8-K, 10-Q, 10-K), investor-relations releases, defense.gov contract announcements, energy.gov, exim.gov, Finance Canada, and White House proclamations. Government dollar amounts, equity stakes, price floors, and offtake terms are taken from those documents, not from commentary about them.

The "unverified" flag

When an item comes from press reporting we could not confirm against a primary source, it is marked "unverified" in the profile text. Treat those items as reporting, not fact. We would rather publish a smaller number we can trace than a bigger one we can't.

Prices are dated

Prices, market caps, and 52-week ranges across the site are as of the Aug 28, 2026 close unless a page says otherwise. They are a snapshot for context, not a live feed, and they change continuously. Report-card moves are computed from daily closes from a free public data feed and may contain errors or delays.

What this is not

No verdict, tier, or level on this site is personalized investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Autonomi Studios LLC is not a registered investment adviser. Securities discussed are volatile and you can lose money. The full legal language lives on the disclosures page.

Browse all 77 company profiles →