Why it’s on the map
Largest US primary aluminum producer; sole US high-purity supplier. US imports ~60% of the aluminum it uses and Canada is ~56% of those imports (USGS 2026; US primary output ~660kt in 2025) — no near-term domestic replacement. The failed Canada deal (which would have cut the Canadian rate to 25%) is estimated (CRU) to be worth ~30–40¢/lb of Midwest premium.
Government money & contracts
$500M DOE funding for Inola OK 750kt smelter (JV with EGA being formalized). New half-rate import program for firms building US smelters.
Customers & commercial
US rolling mills, defense/aerospace high-purity buyers.
Catalysts
Inola FID (pending; not yet dated by the company); Midwest premium (~95¢/lb pre-collapse, record >$1.00 Jan 2026); Q3 late Oct.
Risk
A future US–Canada deal cutting the 232 rate; stock fell 4.6% (Aug 19 close) on deal hopes and rose ~5% Aug 24 when they died.
Tariff durability
Section 232 (durable) — the most direct Canada-round beneficiary we found.