Why it’s on the map
Largest US EAF steelmaker; purest large-cap play on HRC ~$1,150–1,185/st (vs $780 Europe). Record 7.1Mt Q2 shipments; Q3 guided higher.
Government money & contracts
No direct federal capital — Buy American / IIJA beneficiary; heaviest tariff lobbyist.
Customers & commercial
Construction, auto, energy, infrastructure.
Catalysts
Q3 late Oct; WV mill commercial early 2027; weekly CSP.
Risk
Canada's 50% counter-tariff on US steel semis (Sept 8); auto demand slowing 2027; spot-price valuation.
Tariff durability
Section 232 at 50% (durable, unchanged by Section 338).