Why it’s on the map
Section 232 pharma tariffs (100% on patented imports from July 31, 2026). Near-total US API production shields Lilly while rivals importing from Ireland pay 15–100%. ≥$27B in four new US plants.
Government money & contracts
MFN/TrumpRx deal (Nov 2025).
Customers & commercial
Global.
Catalysts
Sept 29 Annex III implementation; Q3 late Oct.
Risk
MFN pricing compression.
Tariff durability
Section 232 (durable).