Why it’s on the map
~10.4M acres US timberland; lumber, OSB, EWP. Canadian softwood carries ~45% all-in duty today (35.16% AD/CVD + 10% Section 232). CEO: Canadian mill capacity has 'permanently exited'.
Government money & contracts
None.
Customers & commercial
Homebuilders/distribution.
Catalysts
Q2 lumber realizations +15% q/q; $1.5B EBITDA growth plan to 2030.
Risk
Lumber futures -10.8% m/m near 5-month low; AR7 final (Oct) LOWERS the Canadian duty wedge to ~35%; housing stuck.
Tariff durability
AD/CVD + 232 (durable) — but demand-constrained.