Why it’s on the map
Met-coal producer building Brook Mine WY — REE + gallium/germanium from coal; only US pathway to Ga/Ge (both under Chinese export control).
Government money & contracts
DOE-NETL strategic agreement.
Customers & commercial
Indium Corp (Ga/Ge MOU, Aug 19); roboLoop, Bedrock Semiconductor MOUs — all non-binding.
Catalysts
Pilot plant; binding offtakes.
Risk
Low-grade unconventional ore; economics unproven; Baird/Morgan Stanley downgrades; ~80% off high.
Tariff durability
China export-control story.