Why it’s on the map
Only US mine-to-magnet chain (Mountain Pass CA → Fort Worth TX). Independence plant shipping magnets; 10X plant (10,000 tpa) commissioning 2028.
Government money & contracts
DoD: $400M convertible preferred + warrants (about 15% stake), 10-yr $110/kg NdPr price floor (paid $17.6M in Q2'26), 10-yr 100% offtake for 10X magnets, $150M loan.
Customers & commercial
Apple $500M recycled-magnet deal; GM anchor customer; new gadolinium offtake with US aerospace/defense customer.
Catalysts
Q3 results early Nov; heavy-REE (Dy/Tb) separation ramp; Nov 10 China export-control truce expiry.
Risk
On China's June 2026 entity export-ban list; NdPr market price below $110 floor (gov't subsidy carries margin); about 45% below 2025 peak.
Tariff durability
China/DoD story — NOT a Canada story. Rare earths are not on either side's Aug 2026 list.
MP Materials does not currently pay a dividend. The trade here is the move, not the check. See the names that do pay →