Why it’s on the map
Designated US heavy-rare-earth champion: Stillwater OK magnet plant, Round Top TX deposit (2028), buying Serra Verde (Brazil) — only Western source of all four magnet REEs.
Government money & contracts
Commerce: up to $1.6B ($277M funding + $1.3B loan capacity), ~10% equity + warrants. Dept of War-backed $1.55B SPV: 15-yr take-or-pay offtake with first-ever Dy/Tb price floors.
Customers & commercial
MOUs only — no named binding magnet customers disclosed.
Catalysts
Serra Verde close (post Aug 28 vote); CEO transition Oct 1; Stillwater commercial output.
Risk
Local reporting says Stillwater 'years behind schedule'; pre-revenue at scale; heavy dilution; on China entity ban.
Tariff durability
China/policy story; not Canada-linked.