Why it’s on the map
Elk Creek NE — only US niobium/scandium project (+ NdPr/Dy/Tb). Canada's Niobec is the only non-Brazil niobium mine — a trade-war-exposed import.
Government money & contracts
DoD award up to $10M; EXIM independent technical review underway; Lockheed Martin scandium MOU (Aug 4, 2026).
Customers & commercial
Lockheed Martin (non-binding MOU).
Catalysts
Earnings Sept 10; EXIM term sheet; binding offtakes.
Risk
$1.85B capex vs $600M cap = heavy dilution; production not before late 2029.
Tariff durability
Canada niobium dependence is a real link.